83rd Annual Golden Globes: Predictions for Black Nominees

2026 Golden Globes predictions for Black talent: Michael B. Jordan, Ryan Coogler, Tramell Tillman, Ayo Edebiri, and more compete. Who will win on January 11?

The 83rd Annual Golden Globes will be held on Sunday, January 11. Put that way, it might look like just another film and TV award ceremony. Except, of course, it isn’t. We’re talking about one of the most prestigious trophies in cinema. And in an award season as competitive as this has been, with exciting outcomes at the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Gotham Awards, the British Independent Film Awards, and the National Board of Review, alongside forthcoming nominations for the Producers Guild of America Awards, Directors Guild of America Awards, BAFTAs, and Oscars, Golden Globe wins could foretell what might be obtainable in the latter run. 

Film Predictions

As always, Black talent is abundant in competition. Fresh off a four-trophy haul at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners will be chasing the globe in seven categories: Best Motion Picture (Drama); Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama) for Michael B. Jordan’s performance as the Stack twins; Best Director (Motion Picture) and Best Screenplay (Motion Picture) for Ryan Coogler; Best Original Song (Motion Picture) for Raphael Saadiq and Ludwing Göransson – who’s also nominated for Best Original Score; and Cinematic and Box Office Achievement. 

The Cast of Sinners at the New York City Premiere. Source: Revolt TV

Precedent-wise, Sinners’ chances are strongest in the Male Actor, Screenplay, and Original Song and Score categories. The delineation of Drama and Comedy/Musical means Michael B. Jordan won’t be up against Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) and Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), both of whom he’s in likely contention with for the Oscars in March. Still, there’s Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), who won the Cannes Film Festival Best Actor prize, to contend with. Discourse by cinephiles and commentators alike is unconvincing as to why he hasn't won any of the majors yet, despite accolades from multiple Critics’ associations. 

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is set to win the Director prize. Coogler could pull an upset for Best Screenplay, especially as both Directors won the Award (Coogler for Original, Anderson for Adaptation) at the Critics’ Choice Awards. On the fringes, there’s Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt (Sentimental Value). Sinners’ music nods should translate to trophies, barring any surprises like “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters. 

Teyana Taylor as Perfidia Beverley Hills in One Battle After Another.  Source: Guardian UK

OBAA’s nominated femme fatales, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti, for Best Supporting Female Actor and Best Female Actor (Musical/Comedy) respectively, face a tough bracket. As does Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), who’s in the Best Female Actor (Musical/Comedy) category for the second time as the same character — a first for any Black woman in history. Emma Stone’s showing in Bugonia might not be a career best, but it’s strong enough to warrant third and fourth thoughts about the outcome here. It's the tightest call for the female acting categories. 

Rounding off the Film category is Tessa Thompson, as the evocative Hedda, who is primarily in contention against Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), who won the Critics’ Choice Awards, Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), and an improbable but not impossible left field legacy winner in Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) for the Female Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama) globe. Of the six nominees, only Buckley got a SAG nod for Female Lead Actor. Go figure. 

TV Predictions

There are almost always more individual Black nominations in TV than in film, which is primarily due to the increased volume of talent required. Leading this number on Sunday is ABC’s Abbott Elementary in the Best Television Series (Musical/Comedy) category — its eleventh nomination since 2023. On paper, it’s a toss-up between Hacks and Seth Rogen's cultural titan, The Studio.

Rashida Jones as schoolteacher Amanda Waters in Black Mirror S7E1 

Ayo Edebiri’s (The Bear) nod in the Female Actor in a Television Series (Musical/Comedy) category portends well. The winners so far in this season are Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face) at the Astra Awards and Jean Smart (Hacks) at the Critics’ Choice Awards, so it really is an open battle. Winning would be a fitting ending to the character of Sydney Adamu. Ahead of the pack in Rashida Jones’ (Black Mirror) Female Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series, or a Motion Picture Made for Television category is Sarah Snook (All Her Fault), who previously won in 2022 and 2024 for HBO’s Succession. 

Sterling K. Brown in Paradise. Source: Variety

Noah Wyle (The Pitt) just about edges out every other nominee in the Male Actor in a Television Series (Drama) category, including the legendary Sterling K. Brown (Paradise). 

The only TV category with two Black nominees, the Male Actor in a Supporting Role on Television, is also the most interesting in the section. Tramell Tillman (Severance) is expected to sweep, of course, but there’s the slightest chance that Owen Cooper (Adolescence) beats the Emmy and Critics' Choice winner to it. Or maybe that’s just award season jitters. Props to Adolescence co-star, Ashley Walters, who was also nominated. 

Finally, there’s Kevin Hart (Kevin Hart: Acting My Age) in an ultra-competitive category. Bill Maher. Brett Goldstein. Kumail Nanjiani. Ricky Gervais. Sarah Silverman. That’s one outcome we do not dare predict. Let the comedy deities have their way. 

All in all, we look forward to a good night out for Hollywood’s Black superstars!